Cryptologist

Geopolitics

Macro Guardian

Stays invested in calm markets and steps aside when the world gets dangerous.

Return

+21.71%

holding Bitcoin: +38.21%

Worst fall

-11.88%

Bitcoin: -8.20%

Sharpe ratio

2.12

return per unit of risk · Bitcoin 3.11

Trades

208

$232.91 in fees · 78% invested on average

Portfolio value, from $10,000

  • Macro Guardian
  • Just hold Bitcoin
$10,000$12,000$14,000Jul 1Jul 31Aug 30Sep 29Oct 29● Just hold B…● Macro Guard…

What it held 24 hours agoDelayed 24 h

  • BTC30%
  • ETH18%
  • SOL12%
  • Cash40%
  • Stress 0.39: Bitcoin volatility ×0.6 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -7.8% from its 30-day high.
  • 60% invested.
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Fall from its highest point

-10%-5.0%0.0%Jul 1Jul 31Aug 30Sep 29Oct 29

How it decides

  • Owns Bitcoin, Ether and Solana (50/30/20) and scales the whole position by a stress score from 0 (calm) to 1 (panic).
  • Stress comes from three signals: Bitcoin's volatility against its usual level, how many of the five coins are below their trend, and Bitcoin's drop from its 30-day high.
  • Live, two more inputs can only raise the stress: the event-risk level the site's editors set for wars, sanctions or exchange failures, and a Fed, CPI or US jobs release in the next 24 hours.
  • Above 0.7 it holds cash only. Decides once a day.

Its decisions, up to a day ago

  1. Oct 27, 08:00 AM · BTC 30%, ETH 18%, SOL 12%

    Stress 0.39: Bitcoin volatility ×0.6 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -7.8% from its 30-day high.

    60% invested.

  2. Oct 25, 08:00 AM · BTC 35%, ETH 21%, SOL 14%

    Stress 0.33: Bitcoin volatility ×1.0 its usual level, 4/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -6.8% from its 30-day high.

    70% invested.

  3. Oct 24, 08:00 AM · BTC 30%, ETH 18%, SOL 12%

    Stress 0.38: Bitcoin volatility ×0.4 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -6.7% from its 30-day high.

    60% invested.

  4. Oct 23, 08:00 AM · BTC 35%, ETH 21%, SOL 14%

    Stress 0.31: Bitcoin volatility ×0.6 its usual level, 4/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -5.7% from its 30-day high.

    70% invested.

  5. Oct 22, 08:00 AM · BTC 30%, ETH 18%, SOL 12%

    Stress 0.43: Bitcoin volatility ×1.5 its usual level, 4/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -5.1% from its 30-day high.

    60% invested.

  6. Oct 21, 08:00 AM · BTC 50%, ETH 30%, SOL 20%

    Stress 0.05: Bitcoin volatility ×1.0 its usual level, 0/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -4.1% from its 30-day high.

    100% invested.

  7. Oct 17, 08:00 AM · BTC 30%, ETH 18%, SOL 12%

    Stress 0.41: Bitcoin volatility ×1.2 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -5.7% from its 30-day high.

    60% invested.

  8. Oct 16, 08:00 AM · BTC 25%, ETH 15%, SOL 10%

    Stress 0.46: Bitcoin volatility ×1.4 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -5.1% from its 30-day high.

    50% invested.

  9. Oct 15, 08:00 AM · BTC 20%, ETH 12%, SOL 8%

    Stress 0.56: Bitcoin volatility ×1.7 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -6.0% from its 30-day high.

    40% invested.

  10. Oct 14, 08:00 AM · BTC 35%, ETH 21%, SOL 14%

    Stress 0.28: Bitcoin volatility ×0.7 its usual level, 4/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -3.6% from its 30-day high.

    70% invested.

  11. Oct 13, 08:00 AM · BTC 25%, ETH 15%, SOL 10%

    Stress 0.50: Bitcoin volatility ×1.8 its usual level, 4/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -3.3% from its 30-day high.

    50% invested.

  12. Oct 12, 08:00 AM · BTC 35%, ETH 21%, SOL 14%

    Stress 0.28: Bitcoin volatility ×0.7 its usual level, 4/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -3.1% from its 30-day high.

    70% invested.

  13. Oct 10, 08:00 AM · BTC 30%, ETH 18%, SOL 12%

    Stress 0.35: Bitcoin volatility ×0.9 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -4.5% from its 30-day high.

    60% invested.

  14. Oct 9, 08:00 AM · BTC 20%, ETH 12%, SOL 8%

    Stress 0.56: Bitcoin volatility ×1.8 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -4.7% from its 30-day high.

    40% invested.

  15. Oct 7, 08:00 AM · BTC 30%, ETH 18%, SOL 12%

    Stress 0.44: Bitcoin volatility ×1.4 its usual level, 5/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -3.0% from its 30-day high.

    60% invested.

  16. Oct 4, 08:00 AM · BTC 50%, ETH 30%, SOL 20%

    Stress 0.02: Bitcoin volatility ×0.3 its usual level, 0/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -1.8% from its 30-day high.

    100% invested.

  17. Oct 3, 08:00 AM · BTC 40%, ETH 24%, SOL 16%

    Stress 0.20: Bitcoin volatility ×1.2 its usual level, 2/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -2.5% from its 30-day high.

    80% invested.

  18. Oct 2, 08:00 AM · BTC 50%, ETH 30%, SOL 20%

    Stress 0.01: Bitcoin volatility ×0.3 its usual level, 0/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -0.7% from its 30-day high.

    100% invested.

  19. Sep 30, 08:00 AM · BTC 40%, ETH 24%, SOL 16%

    Stress 0.18: Bitcoin volatility ×1.3 its usual level, 1/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -3.9% from its 30-day high.

    80% invested.

  20. Sep 29, 08:00 AM · BTC 45%, ETH 27%, SOL 18%

    Stress 0.10: Bitcoin volatility ×0.8 its usual level, 1/5 coins below trend, Bitcoin -3.1% from its 30-day high.

    90% invested.

WhenCoinSideAmountPrice
Oct 27, 08:00 AMETHsell$347.13$2,314.90
Oct 27, 08:00 AMBTCsell$592.88$79,806.71
Oct 25, 08:00 AMSOLbuy$257.39$101.64
Oct 25, 08:00 AMETHbuy$382.93$2,348.00
Oct 25, 08:00 AMBTCbuy$599.40$80,672.84
Oct 24, 08:00 AMETHsell$358.75$2,375.00
Oct 24, 08:00 AMBTCsell$600.66$80,732.01
Oct 23, 08:00 AMETHbuy$382.76$2,401.47
Oct 23, 08:00 AMBTCbuy$623.77$81,579.52
Oct 22, 08:00 AMSOLsell$963.53$104.43
Oct 22, 08:00 AMETHsell$1,490.22$2,430.27
Oct 22, 08:00 AMBTCsell$2,481.11$82,239.46
Oct 21, 08:00 AMSOLbuy$989.46$106.84
Oct 21, 08:00 AMETHbuy$1,501.41$2,456.24
Oct 21, 08:00 AMBTCbuy$2,470.33$83,153.78
Oct 17, 08:00 AMSOLbuy$482.30$105.09
Oct 17, 08:00 AMETHbuy$380.35$2,435.04
Oct 17, 08:00 AMBTCbuy$629.43$81,738.87
Oct 16, 08:00 AMETHbuy$338.10$2,455.08
Oct 16, 08:00 AMBTCbuy$618.71$82,289.99

Simulated with virtual money on past prices, fees and slippage included. Not advice, not a managed service.